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T. BOONE PICKENS, JR.
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4:00 P.M.—5:30 P.M.
(ENERGY SESSION MODERATED BY BARRY C. GOOD; OTHER SPEAKER IS E. H. CLARK)
I. INTRODUCTION
A. THANK YOU BARRY FOR YOUR KIND INTRODUCTION.
B. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, I AM INDEED PLEASED TO BE HERE TODAY AND TO PARTICIPATE ON THE PROGRAM WITH BARRY AND "HUBIE" CLARK.
C. (PERSONAL COMMENTS)
1. [HANDWRITTEN ADDITION: 1951- 43 YRS OLD 1961- 430 M BUDGET 1981]
2.
3.
D. TODAY, I WOULD LIKE TO ADDRESS THREE QUESTIONS FROM AN OIL AND GAS PRODUCER'S STANDPOINT.
II. WHAT IS THE CONDITION OF THE INDUSTRY TODAY?
A. BARRY HAS GIVEN US A GOOD OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE INDUSTRY IN HIS OPENING REMARKS.
B. I WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO BARRY'S COMMENTS BY GIVING YOU MY PERSPECTIVE OF THE CONDITION OF THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY.
C. DESPITE THE GENERAL ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN IN THE UNITED STATES, THE OIL AND. GAS INDUSTRY REMAINS THE STRONGEST ECONOMIC ENTITY IN THE COUNTRY.
D. HOWEVER, THE INDUSTRY HAS NOT ESCAPED THE GENERAL ECONOMIC DECLINE IN OUR NATION.
E. WE HAVE BEEN FACED WITH:
F. THESE FACTORS HAVE CAUSED THE INDUSTRY'S STOCK PRICES TO PERFORM BELOW THE GENERAL MARKET IN RECENT MONTHS.
G. IN RESPONSE TO THE NEGATIVE CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE INDUSTRY, MANAGEMENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE.
{STRICKEN TEXT: A. EXXON DROPPED ITS COLONY SHALE OIL PROJECT IN COLORADO AND LIGNITE PLANT IN EAST TEXAS.}
{STRICKEN TEXT: B. OCCIDENTAL AND TENNECO SHELVED THEIR JOINT SHALE OIL PROJECT IN COLORADO.}
{STRICKEN TEXT: C. SHELL AND GULF DROPPED THEIR SYNTHETIC FUEL PROJECT WHICH WAS THE LARGEST IN THE WORLD.}
H. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO FEEL THE PINCH—{STRICKEN TEXT: AND MANY CONGRESSMEN ARE NERVOUS}
I. BUT TO ME, THE DROP IN PRICES OF CRUDE OIL IS NOT NECESSARILY UNHEALTHY.
A. WE HAVE SEEN THE RATE OF INFLATION DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. {STRICKEN TEXT: (1) ENERGY COSTS ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT 11% OF THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX.} {STRICKEN TEXT: (2) FOR EVERY $2 DROP
IN THE PRICE OF OIL, 1/2% CAN BE TAKEN OFF THE INDEX.}
{STRICKEN TEXT: B. THE CONSUMER' HAS BENEFITTED FROM THE CURRENT OVERSUPPLY OF OIL.} {STRICKEN TEXT: (1) IT HAS BEEN REPORTED
THAT FOR EVERY $1 PER BARRELL DROP IN OIL PRICES, CONSUMERS GAIN ABOUT $6 BILLION IN INCREASED PURCHASING POWER.}
J. THE INDUSTRY HAS ALWAYS HAD ITS UPS AND DOWNS.
III. WHAT ARE THE REMEDIES?
A. YOU WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT I WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO GIVE YOU A PRESCRIPTION FOR INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC WELLNESS?
B. MY COMMENTS WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE SUBJECT THAT I KNOW BEST—THE OIL AND GAS PRODUCING BUSINESS.
C. THE OVERRIDING GOAL OF MANAGEMENT IN PUBLICALLY HELD COMPANIES {IS} [HANDWRITTEN ADDITION: SHOULD BE] THE SAME - QUITE SIMPLY TO PROTECT AND EXPAND THE ASSETS OF THE COMPANY AND THE VALUE OF THEIR SHAREHOLDERS' INTEREST.
D. OIL AND GAS COMPANIES, BOTH-LARGE-AND SMALL, ARE MANAGERS OF DEPLETABLE ASSETS—THEIR RESERVES OF OIL AND GAS.
E. THEREFORE IT IS INCUMBENT UPON THESE COMPANIES TO REPLACE PRODUCTION TO ENSURE THE MAINTENANCE AND GROWTH OF THEIR SHAREHOLDERS' INVESTMENT.
F. MANY OIL AND GAS COMPANIES, HOWEVER, MISLED BY RISING OIL PRICES AND RECORD EARNINGS, HAVE BEEN LIQUIDATING FOR YEARS; THEY SIMPLY HAVE NOT BEEN REPLACING THEIR RESERVES.
G. THE BIGGEST JOB FACING EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION COMPANIES IS TO PROTECT THEIR RESERVE BASE AND TO FIND OIL AND GAS AT A REASONABLE COST...EITHER THROUGH EXPLORATION OR ACQUISITION.
H. A COMPANY MUST DECIDE UPON THE MOST ADVANTAGEOUS WAY FOR IT TO REPLACE RESERVES AND PROCEED WITH THIS GOAL IN MIND.
I. FOR SOME COMPANIES, THERE IS NO HOPE FOR REPLACING RESERVES.
{STRICKEN TEXT: 1. SELLOUTS AND TAKEOVERS WILL BE COMMONPLACE.}
{STRICKEN TEXT: A. TEXAS PACIFIC B. DELHI C. CONOCO D. MARATHON E. HOUSTON OIL AND MINERALS F. TRANS OCEAN G. AND THE LIST GOES ON.}
J. SELLOUTS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS.
K. TAKEOVERS WILL OCCUR BECAUSE:
L. MANAGEMENTS MUST DEVELOP A.BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THEIR COMPANY'S ASSETS.
M. THERE ARE ALWAYS SEVERAL APPROACHES TO SOLVING A PROBLEM ONE MANAGEMENT TOOL TO CONSIDER IN ADDRESSING THE RESERVE BASE ISSUE IS RESTRUCTURING BASED UPON THE ROYALTY TRUST CONCEPT, WHICH WAS PIONEERED BY MESA IN 1979.
N. MESA CREATED ITS ROYALTY TRUST AS A MEANS OF ENSURING MORE REALISTIC VALUE FOR THE COMPANY'S ASSETS. WE ADDRESSED THE QUESTION, "WHY SELL AT BELOW ASSET VALUE IF YOU ARE REPLACING RESERVES?"
O. COMPANIES THAT ARE CANDIDATES FOR THE ROYALTY TRUST ARE THOSE:
P. BASICALLY, THE ROYALTY TRUST GRANTS EACH STOCKHOLDER A DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST IN PRODUCING PROPERTIES....WITH NO POSSIBILITY OF CONFLICTS OF INTEREST.
Q. MESA SPUN OFF APPROXIMATELY ONE-HALF OF ITS RESERVES TO THE MESA ROYALTY TRUST; 8 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL AND 800 BILLION CUBIC FEET OF GAS.
R. BY PROVIDING SHAREHOLDERS WITH A MORE DIRECT INCOME STREAM FROM THESE PROPERTIES, UNBURDENED BY INCOME TAXES AT THE CORPORATE LEVEL, THE STOCK MARKET IS MORE LIKELY TO RECOGNIZE THE VALUE OF THE ASSETS.
S. BY SPINNING OFF A TRUST, A COMPANY REDUCES ITS RESERVE BASE AND {STRICKEN TEXT: GROWS} [HANDWRITTEN ADDITION: BECOMES] SMALLER.
T. REMEMBER, ON THE CREATION OF A TRUST THE COMPANY MAINTAINS A 100% WORKING INTEREST IN THE PROPERTIES; THEREFORE IT RETAINS CONTROL OF RESERVES AND DOES NOT HAVE TO REDUCE PERSONNEL.
U. THE IRS HAS NOW RULED, AS WE HAD EXPECTED, THAT THE MESA ROYALTY TRUST IS A GRANTOR TRUST FOR TAX PURPOSES. THIS RULING SHOULD CAUSE MORE MANAGEMENTS TO LOOK AT THE ROYALTY TRUST CONCEPT.
V. CURRENTLY, THE ROYALTY TRUSTS ARE: MTR, PERMIAN BASIN TRUST SAN JUAN TRUST, HOUSTON OIL TRUST AND HOUSTON OIL ROYALTY TRUST. SABINE HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THEIR ROYALTY TRUST WILL BECOME EFFECTIVE BY JANUARY 1, 1983.
W. I AM SURE OTHERS WILL BE ANNOUNCED IN MONTHS AHEAD [HANDWRITTEN ADDITION: MANY WAYS THE CONCEPT CAN BE USED.]
X. THE ROYALTY TRUST IS A PROVEN CONCEPT, BUT I WANT TO STRESS THAT IT IS NOT THE SOLUTION FOR ALL COMPANIES.
Y. WITH THE ROYALTY TRUST CONCEPT, ALL PARTIES ARE WINNERS:
{STRICKEN TEXT: A. ACCORDING TO A PRELIMINARY STUDY BY OUR PEOPLE; IF 100 OIL AND GAS COMPANIES FORMED TRUSTS COMPRISED OF 1/2 THEIR U.S. RESERVES, THEY WOULD GIVE SHAREHOLDERS DIRECT OWNERSHIP OF APPROXIMATELY $130 BILLION IN PRESENT VALUE UPON DISTRIBUTION PLUS APPROXIMATELY $15 BILLION IN ANNUAL DISTRIBUTIONS.}
{STRICKEN TEXT: B. THIS WOULD CREATE ADDITONAL FEDERAL TAX REVENUES OF SOME $10 - $15 BILLION ON THE INITIAL DISTRIBUTION AND $2-$3 BILLION ON THE ANNUAL DISTRIBUTION.}
IV. WELL, WHAT IS THE GENERAL PROGNOSIS FOR THE INDUSTRY?
A. I THINK IT IS GOOD.
B. DURING THE ALMOST 30 YEARS THAT I HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN THE OIL AND GAS BUSINESS, I CAN NOT RECALL TOO MANY "EASY YEARS".
C. A MATTER OF HIGH PRIORITY IN OUR LONG-TERM RECOVERY AS AN INDUSTRY IS FOR OUR NATION TO DEVELOP A VIABLE ENERGY PLAN THAT WILL MAKE US ENERGY INDEPENDENT.
D. THE 1980's COULD GO DOWN AS A PERIOD OF AWARENESS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY—AWARENESS FOR BOTH STOCKHOLDERS AND MANAGEMENT.
E. ANOTHER MEASUREMENT IN THE GAME PROGRAM THAT IS BECOMING MORE MEANINGFUL TO INVESTORS IS THE ABILITY OF THE COMPANY TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
V. IN SUMMARY,
A. THE OIL AND GAS BUSINESS HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY THE GENERAL ECONOMIC DECLINE {STRICKEN TEXT: BUT IS MAKING ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ITS POSITION} [HANDWRITTEN ADDITION: FORCING MANAGEMENTS TO CONSIDER ALTERNATIVES THAT THEY HAVE NOT CONSIDERED IN THE PAST. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MANY INTERESTING CHANGES IN THE INDUSTRY DURING THE NEXT 24 MONTHS.]
B. MORE AND MORE COMPANIES WILL BE EVALUATING THE VIABILITY OF THE ROYALTY TRUST CONCEPT.
C. BUT MANAGEMENTS AND INVESTORS ARE BEGINNING TO REALIZE THE REAL BOTTOM-LINE—THE REPLACEMENT OF RESERVES.
D. THOSE MANAGEMENTS THAT UNDERSTAND THIS REALITY AND CAN ADJUST TO MARKET CONDITIONS WILL SURVIVE.
E. INVESTORS WHO CAN IDENTIFY THOSE COMPANIES THAT HAVE THESE QUALITIES, WILL MAKE MONEY.
F. THANK YOU.